01 June 2o26

What to Watch in the Aluminum Market During Q3 2026

Several key factors are expected to influence aluminum markets during the coming quarter.

Global supply conditions remain tight, while freight costs and logistics continue to create uncertainty for international trade flows. Meanwhile, demand from automotive, construction, and industrial sectors will be closely monitored for signs of recovery.

For secondary aluminum producers and traders, scrap availability and regional price differentials are likely to remain major drivers of market activity throughout Q3.

 

 

30 April 2o26

 

Aluminum Prices Supported by Growing Supply Concerns

Global aluminum markets have shown renewed strength as supply chain concerns continue to influence market sentiment. Recent disruptions to shipping routes in the Middle East have increased uncertainty regarding metal flows and logistics costs.

Market participants are closely monitoring developments affecting global aluminum trade, while buyers focus on securing reliable supply sources. As a result, aluminum prices have remained supported, with increased attention on inventory levels and supply chain resilience.

The secondary aluminum sector is also benefiting from stronger demand as consumers seek alternative sourcing options in an increasingly volatile market environment.

 

Secondary Aluminum Becomes Increasingly Strategic

Recent developments in the global aluminum market have highlighted the growing importance of secondary aluminum production.

As primary aluminum supply chains face logistical challenges and higher transportation costs, manufacturers are placing greater emphasis on recycled materials and secondary alloys such as ADC12 and AK5M2.

The ability to secure stable scrap supply and maintain flexible sourcing strategies is becoming a key competitive advantage for producers and consumers alike. This trend is expected to continue as companies focus on supply security and sustainability.

 

ADC12 Market Outlook Remains Positive

Demand for ADC12 continues to be supported by the automotive and manufacturing sectors across Asia.

While geopolitical uncertainties have increased market volatility, demand fundamentals remain stable. Rising primary aluminum prices have improved the competitiveness of secondary alloys, supporting interest in ADC12 among die-casting manufacturers.

Market participants expect continued focus on supply security, raw material availability, and long-term supplier relationships as the industry navigates an evolving global landscape.

 

 

15 March 2o26

 

Copper Market Strengthens on Tight Supply and Structural Demand

The copper market showed strong performance in January, with both SHFE and LME copper posting solid month-on-month gains and reaching new highs during the period.

Market fundamentals remained tight, as copper concentrate TC/RC fees dropped to record lows, signaling continued pressure on ore supply. At the same time, demand remained robust, supported by structural growth in sectors such as AI data centers, power grid infrastructure, and new energy vehicles. These trends contributed to a noticeable global refined copper supply gap.

Looking ahead, copper is expected to remain within a firm trading range in February. However, market participants will be watching for potential profit-taking at higher levels and any signs of softer downstream demand in the short term.

 

Metallurgical Silicon Market Faces Balanced Supply and Demand

The metallurgical silicon market experienced a relatively stable but cautious start to the year. Production activity in Southwest China remained constrained, as elevated energy and raw material costs weighed on operating rates and overall output.

On the demand side, high inventories across the photovoltaic industry chain continued to limit purchasing activity, keeping market sentiment subdued. At the same time, firm coal prices provided a degree of cost support, helping to stabilize the market.

Looking ahead, the metallurgical silicon market is expected to move within a narrow range in February, with supply-side discipline and cost factors offering support, while downstream inventory levels may continue to influence short-term demand.

 

 

20 January 2o26

Aluminum Market Overview

The average price of electrolytic aluminum ingots strengthened during January, reaching a peak before easing slightly toward the end of the month. SHFE aluminum rose by 6.3% month-on-month, reflecting firm market sentiment.

Global aluminum inventories fell to a five-year low, as Indonesia’s bauxite export restrictions and domestic production operating near policy capacity limits tightened overall supply. At the same time, demand continued to grow, driven by the photovoltaic sector, energy storage, and new energy vehicle industries.

Looking ahead, SHFE aluminum is expected to remain strong in February. However, seasonal inventory accumulation may exert short-term pressure on the market.

 

Copper Market Overview

The copper market showed strong performance in January, with both SHFE and LME copper posting solid month-on-month gains and reaching new highs during the period.

Market fundamentals remained tight, as copper concentrate TC/RC fees dropped to record lows, signaling continued pressure on ore supply. At the same time, demand remained robust, supported by structural growth in sectors such as AI data centers, power grid infrastructure, and new energy vehicles. These trends contributed to a noticeable global refined copper supply gap.

Looking ahead, copper is expected to remain within a firm trading range in February. However, market participants will be watching for potential profit-taking at higher levels and any signs of softer downstream demand in the short term.

 

Silicon Market Overview

The metallurgical silicon market experienced a relatively stable but cautious start to the year. Production activity in Southwest China remained constrained, as elevated energy and raw material costs weighed on operating rates and overall output.

On the demand side, high inventories across the photovoltaic industry chain continued to limit purchasing activity, keeping market sentiment subdued. At the same time, firm coal prices provided a degree of cost support, helping to stabilize the market.

Looking ahead, the metallurgical silicon market is expected to move within a narrow range in February, with supply-side discipline and cost factors offering support, while downstream inventory levels may continue to influence short-term demand.

 

01 October 2o25

AL

Electrolytic aluminum prices experienced mixed movement in September 2025, with prices rising early in the month and declining later. This trend reflected both domestic and international market divergence as traders reacted to shifting supply and demand dynamics.

In the domestic market, Shanghai aluminum futures slipped 0.17% month-on-month, while in the global market, London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum rose 2.79% over the same period. The contrast highlights the internal and external differentiation between China’s aluminum market and global pricing trends.

The overall market environment was shaped by stable supply growth, divergent downstream demand, and a gradual decline in total inventories. In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point interest rate cut influenced investor sentiment and commodity market expectations, adding short-term volatility to aluminum trading.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Shanghai aluminum prices to face downward pressure in October 2025. With supply remaining steady and demand uneven across industries, the market may consolidate before finding new direction as global macroeconomic conditions evolve.

 

Cu

In September 2025, the domestic copper market first stabilized and then strengthened, reflecting improving sentiment in both local and international markets. Shanghai copper prices rose by 3.5% month-on-month, while London Metal Exchange (LME) copper increased by 3%, supported by tightening supply and steady investor confidence.

Market fundamentals were influenced by supply-side constraints, including the shutdown of Indonesian copper minesand reduced domestic smelting capacity due to maintenance activities. However, despite entering the traditional peak demand season, overall consumption remained weaker than expected, tempering the pace of price growth.

Looking ahead, most institutions remain bullish on Shanghai copper prices in October 2025, driven by expectations of stronger demand from the new energy sector and increased copper foil production. Nevertheless, traders and investors should remain alert to potential downside risks, such as persistent weakness in end-user demand and inventory fluctuations during the peak season.

 

 

25 July 25

Aluminium

Since July, China's scrap aluminum market has exhibited a high-level fluctuation pattern with significant price divergence. During this period, primary aluminum spot prices have maintained elevated levels. Although demand has not shown substantial improvement and upward pressure remains evident, the cost-side support rationale remains solid. Meanwhile, affected by the traditional consumption off-season, downstream scrap utilization enterprises have seen sluggish order performance, with procurement primarily driven by essential needs. This has constrained the overall price increase of scrap aluminum.

In the futures market, the price of cast aluminum alloy is strong and has successfully reached a record high, which forms a sharp contrast with the differentiation pattern in the spot market and further highlights the differences in market expectations among different links of the current waste aluminum industry chain.

 

Copper

Since July, due to high temperatures and other factors, the manufacturing industry has entered the traditional slow season, and copper prices have shown a weak trend. However, as market sentiment gradually eased, there is still an opportunity for copper prices to change.

Recent domestic copper inventories have shown repeated fluctuations. Although the current stage is the combination of high production cycle on the supply side and low season of downstream demand, the downward trend of copper prices has spawned a lot of new orders, and even showed signs of recovery in the downstream demand side, which plays a particularly significant role in building the bottom support for copper prices.

 

Silicon Metal

 Industrial silicon spot prices continued to surge in July! As of 23 July, the spot market saw industrial silicon prices hit a record high .

Since mid-to-late June, silicon manufacturers showing stronger willingness to sell.

However, downstream buyers have shown reduced price acceptance compared to last week, leading to a cooling trend in market inquiries and new order transactions in recent days.

 

 

21 May 25

The May copper market saw an increase in prices compared to the previous month, driven by rigid procurement demands from industries such as air conditioning and valves, which shifted the price center upward. However, the overall market performance was poor, with low activity in the spot market. Downstream players were cautious, showing a strong wait-and-see attitude, leading to weak demand for purchasing goods. Meanwhile, some suppliers actively reduced their premiums to sell, causing the spot premium to drop rapidly.

May aluminum prices saw a significant drop after the holiday this month, which in turn led to a decline in scrap aluminum prices. Prices rebounded slightly by mid-month but with limited gains, and the recycled aluminum industry performed poorly. However, with the temporary conclusion of the Sino-US tariff war, market sentiment has become more optimistic, and market activity has increased. Yet, orders for the die-casting industry remain bleak, with no new orders added.

 

 

 

06 March 25

The global aluminum market prices showed some volatility in February. Market supply and demand are tight, and aluminum prices have a certain upward potential. However, uncertain factors such as global economic conditions, changes in trade policies, and geopolitical situations may also have a negative impact on aluminum prices.

 

LME copper prices have been operating at a high level recently and have shown significant fluctuations. COMEX copper rose this year before experiencing a pullback, while Chinese copper prices have shown a trend of first suppressing and then rising.

 

 

 

13 December 24

 

Copper prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall in the future, and the volatility of aluminum prices may not be as high as that of copper.

The global increase in copper concentrate mainly comes from expansion projects. In the coming years, the global increase in copper mines will decrease year by year, and the shortage cycle of copper concentrate may enter a cold winter period for global smelters.

 

19 November 24

Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the General Administration of Customs and other six departments issued the Announcement on Regulating the Import Administration of recycled Copper and Copper alloy Raw Materials, recycled Aluminum and Aluminum alloy Raw Materials. The recycled copper and aluminum raw materials that meet the requirements of the attached table do not belong to solid waste and can be imported freely. Different kinds of recycled copper and aluminum raw materials are not allowed to be mixed, and different types of recycled copper and aluminum raw materials are not allowed under the same customs declaration form; different types of bulk recycled copper and aluminum raw materials are not allowed. When different categories of recycled copper and aluminum raw materials are independently packaged, they can be mixed, but they should be placed in categories. This announcement will come into effect on November 15,2024.

 

 

 

01 August 24

 

The ADC12 aluminum alloy market experienced a challenging month, with overall performance trending downwards. Beginning the month on a higher note, the market has seen a gradual decline in prices as of July 30st. This downward fluctuation is attributed to a combination of sluggish downstream demand and primarily on-demand procurement practices. While traditional procurement has been subdued, there has been a notable increase in speculative buying activity.

Current inventory levels of ADC12 are generally low, and many suppliers are operating at a loss. Despite these conditions, there is a strong inclination among sellers to maintain higher price points. Given these factors, it is anticipated that the market prices for ADC12 will likely remain stable in the near term.